| Date | Address | Price | Bd | Ba | SqFt | $/SqFt | Zestimate | Price Δ | Broker | Link |
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September closed at a $737.5K median, the best since May, but on only 10 sales — and with rates jumping from 6.71% to 7.40% in five weeks, the September closings are the last ones locked at summer rates.
264 closed sales from May 2025 through September 2026. Arm's-length median (sub-$200K transfers excluded) holds at $710K, average $767K; total volume $200.7M. The same four sales above $2M are still pulling the average up: the $3.95M development deal at 900 SW 80th Ct (Apr 2026), $2.4M at 9330 SW 34th St (Oct 2025), and the $2.395M/$2.037M pair at 11155/11133 SW 85th Ct (33156, Jun/Mar 2026). Strip those as well and the clean median is $705K, average $737K. Average $/sqft across the dataset is $416.
September posted a $737.5K median (+3.9% vs August's revised $710K), a $780K average and $437/sqft (+5.0% vs August's $416). The average is inflated by one sale, 3135 SW 80th Ave at $1.33M (4,203 sqft). Take it out and September's median is $715K, which is right on the market's core. August was revised up from 13 to 15 sales after two late-reported closings (8420 SW 36th St at $540K and 8520 SW 27th Ln at $450K), and that pulled its median down from $729K to $710K. September will probably revise up the same way. The best story of the month is 2000 SW 84th Ave: bought for $630K in June and resold for $875K in September, a 39% markup in about 100 days. That's a renovation flip, and it shows what finished product gets paid in 33155. At the other end, 3231 SW 93rd Pl sold at $545K ($258/sqft) and 8520 SW 27th Ln at $450K ($333/sqft), both well below their block. That's condition-impaired stock trading at a discount, and I wouldn't use either one as a comp.
Q3 2026 is now complete: 51 sales, the busiest quarter since Q4 2025 (54). Jul–Sep averaged 17.0 sales/month against 15.7 for Apr–Jun, up 9%. But the arc inside the quarter goes the wrong way: 26 in July, 15 in August, 10 in September. Part of that is scrape timing, since the October 1 export won't have every late-September closing yet. Part of it is real. Rates are the new variable. PMMS went from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.28% on October 1 and 7.40% today, the highest in this dataset's history. Those September closings went under contract in August at 6.7% money. The October and November numbers are the first that will show what 7.4% does to this market, and I expect volume to soften further before it finds a floor.
23 confirmed price cuts across 264 listings (8.7%). The price-change field is only populated on 25 listings (9.5%), so read that as a floor. September brought the largest cut in the dataset: 3135 SW 80th Ave came down $200,000 before selling at $1.33M, about 13% off the ask. That says sellers at $1M+ in Westchester are still testing a ceiling buyers won't pay. The previous largest cuts, 8881 SW 28th St (-$95,001) and 7835 SW 17th St (-$90,000), are both from summer 2025. The other September cut, 3620 SW 92nd Ave (-$5,000, sold $700K), was a cosmetic trim on a correctly priced house. The pattern is simple: the core $600K–$800K product sells at or near ask, and big cuts happen at the top.
List now, and list right. Your buyer pool shrinks every week rates stay above 7%. The $650K–$800K band is still Westchester's engine (September's middle eight sales all fell between $606K and $830K), so price to those comps, not to the $875K flip down the street unless your house is finished to that level. If you're above $1M, take the lesson from 3135 SW 80th Ave: start where the market is, not $200K above it. A correctly priced core house should draw offers in two to three weeks. If you get nothing in 30 days at 7.4% rates, you're overpriced.
At 7.40% PMMS (7.65% jumbo-adjusted) on the $710K median with 20% down, P&I is about $4,030/month and all-in PITI is about $5,400. That's roughly $265/month more than the same house cost at September's 6.96%. The upside of that pain is leverage. Fewer buyers can qualify at this payment, so sellers who listed in August expecting summer traffic are going to sit, and that's where you negotiate. Don't chase the renovated flips in 33155. Look for clean, unrenovated 3/2s in 33165 and 33155 in the $600K–$700K range, where most of the volume trades. And price in a refinance: if rates come back toward 6.7%, refinancing a $568K loan from 7.65% saves about $365/month.
Year-Over-Year Price Trend: The September 2026 median of $737,500 compares with $707,500 in September 2025, up 4.2% year over year, on lower volume (10 sales vs 12, -17%). That breaks the year-over-year declines of July and August (August is now -9.3% on the revised $710K vs $782.5K). With volume this thin, one $1.33M sale moves the mean a lot but the median very little. The median gain is real but modest, and it's consistent with prices stabilizing rather than recovering.
Price Per Square Foot Trend: Average $/sqft for May–September is $411 in 2026 versus $406 in 2025, up 1.2%. A comparison starting in January isn't possible because the dataset begins May 2025. Per-square-foot value is essentially flat year over year, while the headline median has moved between -9% and +4% in recent months. So the monthly median swings come from which homes sold (size, condition, ZIP), not from any change in underlying value.
Quarterly Absorption Trend (ex-outliers, >$2M excluded): Q2 2025 $732,000 (30 sales) · Q3 2025 $774,250 (44, peak) · Q4 2025 $690,000 (54) · Q1 2026 $681,250 (36, trough) · Q2 2026 $690,000 (45) · Q3 2026 $700,000 (51). Q3 2026 is the third straight quarterly gain off the Q1 trough, on the second-highest quarterly volume in the dataset. The correction from the Q3 2025 peak looks finished: the median has recovered about 2.8% from the trough and is still 9.6% below the peak. The 7.40% rate environment going into Q4 is the main risk to that recovery continuing.
Price Distribution: <$500K: 15 (5.7%) · $500–600K: 34 (12.9%) · $600–700K: 74 (28.0%) · $700–800K: 57 (21.6%) · $800–900K: 46 (17.4%) · $900K–$1M: 20 (7.6%) · $1M–$2M: 14 (5.3%) · >$2M: 4 (1.5%). The $600K–$800K corridor holds 49.6% of all transactions (131 of 264). Counting $800–900K, the $600K–$900K range holds two-thirds (67.0%). The sub-$500K tier (5.7%) is mostly distressed or condition-impaired sales. Every sale above $2M is an identified, flagged outlier.
Market Pace: The trailing three months (Jul–Sep) averaged 17.0 sales/month, against 15.7 in the prior three months (Apr–Jun), up 8.5%. But the pace fell every month within the quarter (26 → 15 → 10). A rising three-month average combined with falling monthly counts means momentum is fading. Buyer behavior had been normalizing through the summer, and the rate shock that started in September is the first test of that.
hdpData output — not the lite search-results-only mode)zillow_westchester_YYYY-MM-DD.csvwestchester_dashboard_v10_2025-05_2026-09.html (or whatever the new last month is)